Протокол испытаний станции Системы предсказания землетрясений

Протокол испытаний станции Системы предсказания землетрясений.

The protocol of tests of system of earthquake’s prediction.


Haifa. Israel.


The members of a test commission:
Yagodin Alexandr – (professional geophyzist )
midia100@netvision.net.il
+972-4-8598143 (rus)

Dr. Goldenberg M. (engl).

Alperovich Victor (professional electronic).



Whereas the measurements were executed from one gauge, in tests was determined distance up to epicenter of the future earthquake, instead of its geographical coordinates.

Installation place of the equipment - house on Carmel ( Haifa – city).
Three days be ordered gauging with automatic record. The results are kept on CD.

The data on earthquakes are received from a site (http://www.emsc-csem.org/).

The place of epicenter of the future earthquake is determined by method of Yagodin Alexandr
(Method of earthquake prediction Israel, №169757, 19/07/2005.)
By results of determination and data from seismologists the diagram is constructed.
The correlation and error is determined.
K (correlation) = 0,995 ; P = 98 %.
In experience for three days 30 earthquakes are taken to account on range from 30 up to 2000 km.

Conclusions.

The offered system is suitable for use in system of the earthquake’s prediction with parameters:

1. Distance from gauges up to epicenter of earthquake no more than 2000 kms.
2. Quantity of stations of supervision in area - not less than 4.
3. Accuracy of definition of a place epicenter of earthquake on distance of 1000 km. - no more than 5 km.
4. Accuracy of definition of time of a beginning of earthquake - 20 minutes.
5. Time from the prediction prior to the beginning earthquake from 2 hours about 30 minutes.
6. Accuracy of definition of force of the future earthquake 0,5 number.

(Система, представленная к испытаниям пригодна для создания системы предупреждения землетрясений со следующими параметрами:
1. Расстояние от датчиков системы до эпицентра будущего землетрясения - до 2000 км..
2. Количество станций (датчиков) на территории изучаемой площади - не менее 4.
3.Погрешность определения места положения эпицентра (будущего) землетрясения на расстоянии1000 км. - не более 5 км.
4.Погрешность определения времени начала землетрясения - не более 20 минут.
5. Опережение предупреждения до до начала землетрясения (не менее)- от 30 минут до 2 часов.
6. Ошибка в определении силы землетрясения не более 0,5 баллов.